Post-Election Certainty
Everyone frets about the uncertainty following today’s US election.
But I foresee great certainty in two areas, irrespective of who wins the election and which party (Democratic or Republican) ends up ruling the US:
1) America’s rivalry with China will intensify in coming decade
In an insightful article in Dissent Magazine, J.W. Mason, an economics professor at John Jay College (CUNY) quotes Democratic pollster David Shor who tweeted:
“(I) would much rather live in a world where we see a 4 degree rise in temperature than live in a world where China is a global hegemon”
Mason explains how the Biden Administration-supported Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and CHIPS & Science Act aim to cut America industrial dependency on China and rebuild US manufacturing base.
The end (covert) goal of America’s “green” reindustrialization is to export massively US-made next-gen manufacturing & clean tech, rivaling (stiffling, actually) China’s own exports.
Read my article on how the China-US industrial and (climate) tech rivalry will play out.
Which brings me to the second post-election certainty:
2) The US hinterland will drive America’s “green” (decarbonized) growth in coming decade
As an immigrant, I spent 20 years in Boston, New York, and the Bay Area.
I long believed the cosmopolitan coastal areas were the leading innovation hubs in the US.
My perspective radically shifted when I read in Financial Times Nikkei 2023 ranking of the best US cities for international business.
Here is the list of top 10 best US cities for foreign multinationals to do business: Houston (TX), Pittsburgh (PA), Plano (TX), Irving (TX), Dallas (TX), Miami (FL), Austin (TX), Charlotte (NC), Greesboro (SC), Seattle (WA)
During the 20th century, Houston was known as the “energy capital of the world”
Now, Houston aspires to become the “energy transition capital of the world” by 2040.
Houston plans to lead this transition to green energy frugally by cleverly repurposing and reusing its existing assets and knowhow honed for oil and gas.
Likewise, Tulsa, Oklahoma was the “oil capital of the world” in early 20th century.
With help from Tulsa Innovation Labs, the State of Oklahoma is now a global reference in “(energy) transition” by building an inclusive and green economy.
As Ross DeVol, CEO of Heartland Forward, explained to me:
“The heartland (hinterland) has a strong tradition at making things. It is capitalizing on its core industrial strength to build the next-gen tech innovation ecosystems centered on clean energy, advanced mobility, cutting-edge materials, robotics, and advanced manufacturing — all of which involve making physical products.
VC investment flowing into Austin, Texas and Chicago today is similar to Silicon Valley’s in 1995. 40% of America’s leading-edge research universities are based in the heartland. They will anchor the industry-transforming innovation ecosystems of the 21st century.”
