What the bull, eagle, dragon, and elephant tell us about the past and future of Europe, America, China, and India

It’s insightful to analyze the Rise, Decline, and the Rise (again) of Great Powers by studying the personality and behavior of the animals associated with them.

America’s symbol is the EAGLE: an air creature that can soar to the sky rapidly, just like the US economy took off during 19th century and early 20th century.

The Eagle can plunge rapidly to grab its prey (like US Navy Seals who parachute anywhere for rapid interventions), but when it chooses to land, it descends gradually and gracefully — just like the US economy will in next two decades.

Europe’s symbol is the BULL. Learn why by reading this and this.

The bull is an Earth animal known for its strength, indomitable spirit and tenancy. It symbolizes hard work and a slow path to success rather than short-cuts, quick wins, and rapid growth.

Western Europe gained its economic might gradually over centuries before dominating the world between 1850 and 1950.

An aging bull retains its majestic presence. Europe’s economic VALUE (output) will decline in coming decade but it will still command global respect for its VALUES.

China’s symbol is the DRAGON, a fiery and powerful air creature.

Just like an eagle, the dragon can soar rapidly, just like the Chinese economy took off during the 70s, thanks to Deng Xiaoping’s reforms (1978), and maintained its growth momentum till now

But the Dragon is a finicky and insecure creature that can provoked easily (due to its dominant “fire” element) which can make it lose its focus and cause imbalance — as characterized by the “yo-yo” (up-and-down) pattern of China’s economy during the entire 2nd millennium.

In Chinese astrology, the dragon is known for its pioneering spirit and its capacity for self-renewal (like a Sphinx that can rise from its ashes)

Hence, to maintain its economy supremacy in 21st century, China must enkindle its people’s “entrepreneurial spirit” and harness frontier science & tech innovations to reinvent its economy constantly.

India’s symbol is the ELEPHANT, a majestic Earth creature known for its strength, wisdom, and steadfastness.

The elephant moves slowly but has the endurance to travel very long distances to reach its goal.

In 1000, India’s economy was the largest in the world — just like the elephant is the largest land animal. India’s economic decline was gradual since 1700.

India has grown fast in past 10 years and overtook most European economies.

But, in next decade, India will face headwinds that will hamper its growth: water scarcity, natural disasters, overpopulation in North and an aging South.

India must muster the elephant’s resilience and vigor to keep growing inclusively and sustainably in next 2 decades.

The elephant is a “trailblazer” : it clears alleys in dense forests.

Rather than catch up or leapfrog the West economically, India must confidently “trailblaze” a new socio-economic development pathway, which could inspire the whole world.

Read my article on Bharat the Trailblazer.

The data & chart used in this article is sourced from “The World in 2030: Trends, Inflection Points Challenges & Opportunities” published by Arab Strategy Forum المنتدى الاستراتيجي العربي